Something rather familiar is happening within the TV industry, I feel.
I wonder are Setanta starting to over-stretch themselves? With less than six months before their biggest deal, 46 live and exclusive matches in the English Premier League appear, are we seeing something that happened before again?
In the past year, Setanta has grown to become a decent competitor to Sky in terms of what rights they have picked up. As well as the football, and the Scottish Premier League and Magners League rugby, they got the US PGA tour from Sky for 6 years. They also have the exclusive rights to most of the Rugby World Cup on Irish TV.
But lets look at these deals in more detail.
They paid the Rugby World Cup an undisclosed amount, possibly a few million; the US PGA maybe up to 120 million over the lifetime of the deal, the Premier League £392m million for 3 years. But the thing is… what exactly have they got for their money?
They won't have exclusive coverage of Ireland's Rugby World Cup matches, they had to sell that package on to TV3 for the Ireland games, as they are designated events by the Government, but also nearly all of the other games will be freely available on ITV1 (UTV) and ITV4 and S4C. It’s the same with the Magners League. Why pay if you can tune into S4C and BBC 2 Wales on satellite for free, and get most of the games?
On the Premier League front, they have the packages that effectively Sky thought was the least/worst option; Saturday after 5pm and Monday nights. You wont see Man Utd, Chelsea or Liverpool playing on a Monday night, as Sky well know, and as European games occur, those teams would prefer a Saturday lunchtime fixture, which Sky appear to have. £392m looks a huge figure now.
On Golf, Setanta have the rights to the main US PGA tour events. But that equates to two or three hours per weekend of live coverage from the event. Is a dedicated 24 hour channel a bit overkill? Sky still retain the rights to the Ryder Cup, 2 US majors (US PGA and US Open), all the World Golf Championship games and the Solheim Cup, as well as 30+ events on the European Tour. Sky's cupboard is far from empty. Sky still have a good few biggies.
Also, the cost of their packages appears to be rising. It was 15 pm or 180 per year, but it is going up to 18 / 216, and maybe once more by the time the Premiership appears. Granted, announced this week, they will launch a channel on Freeview's TopupTV, and give them an audience that hasn’t had Premier League football since ITV Digital…. Ahh… yes… Its all becoming clear now….
That's my huge fear for Setanta, that they will become ITV Digital mk 2. While paying for a slice of the Premiership in the UK and if the return in subscriber numbers and revenue doesn't follow..... NTL in the UK almost succumbed too when it got the Pay-per-view games in the 2000 round of rights buying, before selling onto Sky.
I wonder how profitable the SPL and Magners League has been for them. Those two leagues will suffer if Setanta have issues, much like the Football League in England did when ITV Digital collapsed.
I hope they don't. It's good to have competition, but people are no mugs. When the European Commission and the Premier League decided how football should be shown on TV, I think the EC's idea of competition was bunk when the rights went to two pay-TV operators. I'm no fan of Sky, but I resent having to fork out more for less, and also having to pay to another company for the same things I paid for before, for more again.
And if people do vote with their wallets…. It's not Sky who will disappear.